musicaltheatrefan
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What do you think will be the longest running show on B'WAY?Which of the shows that I list in the poll do you think will be the longest running. I have included all open-ended shows currently on Broadway. If a show has announced a closing date before the show turns 20 it is not included. I have only included musicals and no revivals. Because it would only let me enter in a certain amount of poll options, I grouped some shows together, so if you voted for one of the grouped options please post which one you actually think will be the longest running show on Broadway
I put my vote in for Wicked
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musikal_geek
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Although not the best show quality-wise, Wicked will probably outrun everything (as long as POTO dies soon). It has been #1 in the box office for years.
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wicked_boy
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Wicked, it's always breaking box offices around the world, even thought it's about 4 years old, it had the highest grossing for 2007 Xmas week.
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Salome
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Ave Q. its the best currently running plus its inexpensive.
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musikal_geek
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| Salome wrote: | | Ave Q. its the best currently running plus its inexpensive. |
In terms of sales, I don't think it's been doing particularly well. It hasn't been in the Top 10 on Broadway.Com for a while now... just sayin'.
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Sweeney Hyde
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| musikal_geek wrote: | | Salome wrote: | | Ave Q. its the best currently running plus its inexpensive. |
In terms of sales, I don't think it's been doing particularly well. It hasn't been in the Top 10 on Broadway.Com for a while now... just sayin'. |
As far as I know, that board refers to just how much broadway.com sells...if you want to see grosses and how much shows are actually making every week, attendence numbers, etc. playbill.com is the place to look.
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Set_Buildin_Dad
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| Sweeney Hyde wrote: | | musikal_geek wrote: | | Salome wrote: | | Ave Q. its the best currently running plus its inexpensive. |
In terms of sales, I don't think it's been doing particularly well. It hasn't been in the Top 10 on Broadway.Com for a while now... just sayin'. |
As far as I know, that board refers to just how much broadway.com sells...if you want to see grosses and how much shows are actually making every week, attendence numbers, etc. playbill.com is the place to look. |
Broadwayworld also has weekly grosses as well as percentages of tickets sold vs. house capacity. It is in a database so that you can look back historically. It's kind of fun to browse.
As the the question at hand, it is difficult to predict what show will be running 10 years from now to overtake the phantom. The closest threee right now are rRent, Chiccago, and Lion King, each of which has half the performances of Phantom. Rent and Chicago seem to be running out of gas, leaving Lion King the only thing that could catch Phantom in the next 10 years.
Of the other shows mentioned I think is is a total crap shoot to predict the "younger" shows that will have the legs to last 20 years. If I had to put my money one one, I would say Wicked. I say this because it appeals to a wide demographic, but particularly to young teenage theatregoers. This population is constantly being replenished.
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pish123c
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As much as I dislike the show, I firmly believe that Spring Awakening is the new Rent...I guarantee you that in 11 years the original stars will be reprising their roles to push ticket sales.
If not Spring Awakening...Wicked. Geez, why do all of the long-running shows have to suck? 
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~GertrudeMcFuzz~
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I have to go with Wicked. As much as I love Hairspray and Legally Blonde (and plenty of other shows on that list), Wicked had a more epic impact on theatregoers. Even people who don't like musicals at all seem to know about Wicked, and I think it's popularity will keep it running no matter what it's quality is when compared to other shows.
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CapeTwirl
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Phantom just had it's 20th anniversary last week and is over 8,300 performances so far, and still regularly grosses 75%-100% per week.
Wicked is in it's 4th year and is at 1750 performances.
There is no comparison at all. Until Phantom closes (which who knows when that will be judging by it's grosses & name recognition), no other show can ever even begin to start approaching it's total.
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Theaterfan101
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Wicked. all the 13 year old girls are dragging thier parents to see it, and will so for years
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wicked_boy
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I'm willing to bet millions that Wicked will hit the 10 year mark at least.
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Orestes Fasting
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Honestly it's between Wicked, which will probably become one of those fixtures that never die, and Phantom, which is already a fixture and has a fifteen-year lead on Wicked.
My bet is on Phantom, personally. It survived when all the other long-lived megamusicals called it a day; chances are it'll still be running when most people here are dead.
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Sweeney Hyde
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I think The Phantom of the Opera will outlast them all, of the ones currently running.
I think if anything is going to beat it, it hasn't come about yet.
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frenchhorngirl
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long running musicals do not all suck. im sorry but phantom is genius.
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Mistress
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My vote goes with Wicked, it's basically the new POTO, unless POTO still has juice left...we'll have to see in a few yeasrs time, but right now, it's Wicked for me.
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Pounce
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If you are starting the clock right now, I guess Wicked will become the longest presently running show on Broadway since PotO has been on for many years prior. Les Miz bills itself as the world's longest running any where but arguably they managed that by moving to a smaller theater. Right now, according to Playbill the strongest shows are Wicked and Jersey Boys. PotO's numbers are down but I'm not sure if it is a trend. Chicago has had a remarkable revival run but its numbers look severely low. A Chorus Line doesn't seem to show any evidence of its past glory days.
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Pounce
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| Salome wrote: | | Ave Q. its the best currently running plus its inexpensive. |
So was Spelling Bee.
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pish123c
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| Pounce wrote: | | Chicago has had a remarkable revival run but its numbers look severely low. |
Ticket sales are down but I wouldn't say they're severely low. I predit it'll at least make it to its 12th birthday and close shortly after, although I think it should have closed a while ago (Despite the fact that it's my favorite show).
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Dots Parasole
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Wicked will beat Phantoms record.
As much as I hate that show it does manage to fill the mighty Gershwin every single night.
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Orestes Fasting
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Wicked might outlive Phantom, but there's no way of knowing yet whether it has the long-term appeal to break whatever record Phantom will set.
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BroadwayBaby0202
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My vote goes to Wicked.
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tortallcit
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Definitely wicked... *shame that Rent didn't last longer*
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ActingDude17
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Wicked, because of one word. Fangirls.
Put simply, people aren't gonna stop seeing Wicked anytime soon. It has a very strong and die-hard fanbase.
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LookBehindTheFacade
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My bet is that Wicked will outlive Phantom.
I hope I'm wrong.
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mezzo_soprano
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| Orestes Fasting wrote: | | My bet is on Phantom, personally. It survived when all the other long-lived megamusicals called it a day; chances are it'll still be running when most people here are dead. |
A quote comes to mind, "Will you still play when all the rest of us are dead."
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DaddyDiesel
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Sorry it will be phantom. Wicked is doing well but I just dont think it will have the legs to go beat phantom. Phantom is still going strong after 20 years. It doesnt look like it will come off of broadway anytime soon.
I am still thinking that wicked is a fad that will die out eventually. especially since its fanbase is mostly fan girls.
Interesting facttoid; In five years there have been 7 galindas and 6 elphabas on broadways staging of wicked. In 20 years There has been 11 differant phantoms. I dont think that it really means anything I just find it interesting.
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Pounce
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| DaddyDiesel wrote: | | Sorry it will be phantom. Wicked is doing well but I just dont think it will have the legs to go beat phantom. Phantom is still going strong after 20 years. It doesnt look like it will come off of broadway anytime soon. |
But after 5 years, Wicked's percent attendance is in the high 90s while Phantom's latest numbers are below 70%. Phantom's numbers are good but I don't see Wicked weakening and with its numbers, it can stand a considerable drop in attendance.
| Quote: | | I am still thinking that wicked is a fad that will die out eventually. especially since its fanbase is mostly fan girls. |
I think Phantom relies on its own "fan girl" base. Wicked has gotten past the "fad" stage and it'll be interesting to see how well it does in Germany and Japan.
| Quote: | | Interesting facttoid; In five years there have been 7 galindas and 6 elphabas on broadways staging of wicked. In 20 years There has been 11 differant phantoms. I dont think that it really means anything I just find it interesting. |
From my experience, women don't seem to have the same stage stamina as men. You are more likely to see standbys for women roles than men. In Phantom, I've seen a regular Christine standby but not for the Phantom.
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wicked_boy
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Dumb question:
From what I've read, I'm understanding that there were only two Beat's in BatB on Broadway? Am I right or wrong?
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What Is This Feeling?
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Wicked will die eventually, I believe before Phantom. Like for instance, I don't see Wicked running for 2o years. One of the ones I think you should have put in (maybe I didnt see it) is Chicago. Almost at 12 years, I think that and Phantom will eventually be the two longest running. Avenue Q is really inexpensive, but then again so is Rent. Who really sees Avenue Q beating Phantom f the Opera in terms of a run?
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EponineMNFF
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Agh! Haha! For a moment I lost my mind and thought this thread was about which show would close FIRST.
Hence the one vote for Xanadu.
Hahahahahaa. 
Sorry....
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